Ukraine maintains macroeconomic stability despite war – EBRD report

Ukraine is maintaining macroeconomic stability despite Russia’s war on the country, says the latest edition of a flagship economic report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Real GDP growth, slow at the start of the year, picked up strongly to 3.0 per cent by the end of 2025, giving a whole-year figure of 2.0 per cent.

The EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects (REP), published on 26 February, changes the assumption behind its real GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2026. Assuming the war continues throughout 2026, the Bank now forecasts that Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 2.5 per cent this year, rising to 4.0 per cent in 2027. Its previous report had assumed a ceasefire and benefits from post-war reconstruction, allowing it to forecast 2026 growth of 5.0 per cent.

“Supporting the country’s macroeconomic stability is significant, secured and largely frontloaded external financing,” the report says. “While the war continues to impose substantial human and economic costs, Ukraine’s authorities, businesses and partners have demonstrated strong capacity to stabilise the economy under unprecedented conditions.”

According to the report, economic performance in 2025 was shaped by major wartime constraints. Power shortages, weaker agricultural output and ongoing labour shortages weighed on growth, while Russia’s targeted attacks on infrastructure created persistent logistical bottlenecks. The trade deficit widened as grain exports declined and temporary European Union trade preferences ended. Nevertheless, many sectors continued to adapt, reflecting strong resilience and the ability of firms to operate effectively despite disruption.

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Press release