EU enlargement and creative destruction: transformation, disruption, and new opportunities 

Is the EU doomed? 

Undoubtedly not the most optimistic way to begin an article, but certainly a question that captures what has been puzzling minds across Europe and beyond. In 2014, Jan Zielonka, the author of the eponymous essay (Is the EU Doomed?), offered a controversial yet thought-provoking idea of the future of the European Union. Rather than predicting collapse, he outlined a massive structural transformation: from a centralised system to a more flexible, decentralised, and network-based Europe, shaped by cities, regions, governments, and civil society. However, what if such a crisis is not an endgame, but a process? Moreover, what if this process is not fully political, but fundamentally creative? 

In 1943, the political economist Joseph Schumpeter classified creative destruction as an industrial mutation that revolutionises the economic structure from within, destroying the old and creating a new one. Thus, through the lens of creativity, EU enlargement is a structural shock rather than a predictably smooth expansion. Unlike traditional theory associated with technological advances and manufacturing, EU enlargement represents a unique form of institutional creative destruction. By integrating new member states into the Single European Market, enlargement simultaneously creates new economic opportunities and disrupts existing structures, challenging their approaches and perceptions. So enlargement isn’t an untamed chaos but a massive transformation. Mastering this process effectively ensures prosperity and growth, overcomes obstacles and challenges, and eventually leads to a great renewal that has already started. In fact, growth through destruction was predicted decades ago, when Jean Monnet said: “I have always believed that Europe would be built through crises, and that it would be the sum of their solutions.” Dismantling old models is always challenging, but the true value of EU enlargement lies in the enormous opportunities emerging where old limitations once stood. 

First, the EU growth potential. The 2025 research by Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt, which was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics, presents a notable case: for sustained economic growth, new technologies must not only be invented but also taken up and maintained; new ideas must take root quickly. Indeed, enlargement is a modern form of the industrial revolution, but unlike steam engines, it is powered by new members and their societies. They bring new economic opportunities, primarily in trade, by eliminating existing barriers and speeding up processes.

Nevertheless, it also motivates older member states to cooperate and create newer systems, better digitalisation, fewer bureaucratic processes, greater transparency, and opportunities for people and states as a whole. Moreover, the growth is already backed by real data. According to a Euronews report, almost 74% of EU citizens believe their country has benefited from membership of the bloc, highlighting economic growth and new job opportunities, with the Czech Republic as an example, where GDP per capita in the went from 45% of the EU average in 2004 to 74% in 2024, or Lithuania, from 26% to 68% over the same period. Another precise measure is an indexed GDP: setting gross domestic product per person in euros at 100 in 2004 for each country. While it has grown significantly all across the EU, over the past 20 years, from 2004 to 2024, growth in the 13 new member states boomed by  558% and 500% in Romania and Bulgaria respectively, as well as in the Baltic States, averaging at almost 349%. 

The European Commission also insists that past enlargement brought significant benefits and impressive economic growth to the new members and to the EU as a whole. Though the industrial and economic pillars are crucial, enlargement also offers improved opportunities for joint projects that reach far beyond trade, security, and cultural solidarity. It is notable in the EU’s response to the housing crisis, emphasising the efficiency of modular housing, which, with expanded experience, access to resources, and creators’ contributions, isn’t only about generating new ideas but also about their long-term maintenance and continuous development. Enlargement is thus simultaneously both tangible economic growth and intangible intellectual inheritance. As Joel Mokyr notes, openness to new ideas, societies, and intellectual exchange with expertise fosters growth. New states bring a significant boost to the static model from the outside, initially quite chaotic. Likewise, the destruction of inefficient, outdated structures is worth it. 

Then there is geopolitical resilience and security through innovation. As Mario Draghi noted in 2024, the foundations we built on are now being shaken: the previous global paradigm is fading, geopolitical stability is waning, and our dependencies have become vulnerabilities. This highlights the essential significance of enlargement for security and geopolitical influence. Seeing it from there, creative destruction is indeed related to technological upheaval, as in the EU’s potential enlargement towards Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Ukraine offers a striking example: a country where crisis has accelerated technological development, particularly in defence, transforming vulnerability into capability.

Ukraine is currently one of the leading countries in defence technologies, with real battlefield experience. Ukraine’s accession isn’t only a response to the current existential security crisis, but also a way to reinvent European defence and energy interdependence, with the new member states acting as catalysts, forcing the discarding of ineffective models (destruction), and creating new ones (creation). As Stefan Lehne describes (The EU and the Creative and Destructive Impact of Crises), as the war continues and the EU’s crisis-related collateral damage mounts, asymmetries are emerging: most countries in the northern and eastern parts of the EU view Russian aggression as a direct threat to their national security. Besides, the idea of geopolitical resilience through enlargement and innovation is a pivotal strategy for Europe’s security and stability, as recently highlighted by the European Parliament. Parliament argues that the cost of non-enlargement would exceed that of new members joining the EU, risking the creation of geopolitical grey zones vulnerable to antagonistic foreign influence. Enlargement, therefore, isn’t just a policy-driven choice – it’s the EU’s essential transformation. 

Where does this leave us? Enlargement does not simply expand the European Union – it reshapes it in decisive ways. While seemingly chaotic in the spur of the moment, the opportunities, especially in security, innovation, geopolitical resilience, and idea generation, make its implementation necessary. Bringing in new member states, connecting and linking with older, will take a long time, fuelled by the destruction of outdated inefficiencies, but it will also become a moment of mighty transformation, with new ideas, opportunities and even stronger EU unity. 

Sources: 

Schumpeter, J. A. (1943). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. George Allen & Unwin (Publishers) Ltd. 

Zielonka, J. (2014). Is the EU Doomed?. Wiley.

Lehne, S. (2022). The EU and the Creative and Destructive Impact of Crises. Carnegie Europe. 

Olovsson, C., Popov, A. (2025). Understanding sustained growth: the 2025 Nobel Prize and why it matters for Europe. European Central Bank. 

Yanatma, S. (2025). Twenty years on: Did joining the EU make new members richer? Euronews. 

Draghi, M. (2024). The future of European competitiveness. A competitiveness strategy for Europe. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2025. 

European Parliament. (2026). EU enlargement: a strategic investment in Europe’s security and stability.