A blueprint for enlargement: what we can learn from Moldova, Ukraine, and Montenegro

Democracy, freedom, equality, solidarity. Fundamental ideals of the EU since its inception have made it what it is today. Those ideals and their protection within the EU are what make admission to the Union so highly sought after. Lawmakers, diplomats, bureaucrats, analysts, and an unending list of other experts devote years of work and countless pages of paper just for a single country to join the EU. But can anyone reach the finish line? And even if they can, is it worth it?

As an EU citizen, I can attest that the answer to that last question is definitely yes. For many of us, the EU stops being an abstract idea in everyday moments: boarding a flight without stressing over visa requirements, being compensated when our train runs late, access to opportunities abroad, and much more. More important, however, are the things you and I don’t directly notice but which shape our daily lives, such as significant economic growth, the protection of democracy and freedom at a national and international level, diplomacy, and more. These create the conditions for us, EU citizens, to thrive.

The long and winding road

But what makes EU entry so difficult? To understand the difficulty of the process, it is important to understand what a candidate country needs to go through for it to even be considered as a member. These are the well-known Copenhagen Criteria, composed of the protection of democracy, human rights, the rule of law and minorities, a functioning, competitive economy, and the ability to work within the EU and EU law as a full member (and of course, much more). That might sound simple enough to us, but to achieve that, candidates need to negotiate 35 different chapters (divided into six different clusters or “categories”), which detail everything from freedom of movement of goods, people, and capital, company law, energy, taxation, and even fisheries. Basically, everything that makes a country a country. What makes this process even more complicated is “backsliding”, or when a country, during the negotiation procedures, ends up reversing progress in one or multiple chapters that it’s working on or has already closed. This can often make the process feel never-ending. In the Eastern Partnership, one country, Georgia, which is part of the ‘Association Trio’ of candidates with Ukraine and Moldova, has experienced severe “democratic backsliding”, with massive changes in its current government and immense pressure by Russia.

Even though it’s been 13 years since a country last joined the EU, with Croatia’s accession in 2013, the process is neither unending nor impossible. From the lack of progress, it might seem obvious to conclude that negotiations or interest in them have stagnated, or maybe there are no good candidates left. But it is not as simple as that. First, it is vital to note that the EU itself has made commitments on pursuing the entry of several candidate countries. Also, despite no new countries joining, several have begun the process and/or have opened and closed negotiation chapters at a steady pace. Notable examples include Moldova, Ukraine, and the Balkan example of Montenegro. Each country is at a different stage of its accession phase.

Moldova’s swift progression

Moldova’s progress in just the past four years has been remarkably fast by European standards. Moldova applied and was granted candidate status in 2022, and in 2023, accession negotiations were opened. According to the official reports from the European Commission, significant steps have been taken in the vast majority of areas of negotiation, with chapters expected to be officially opened within the year. This is despite political challenges to the process by some EU members, which can slow progress even when reforms are advancing on the ground. The government’s goal is to complete the negotiation process within the next couple of years and for Moldova to join the EU by 2030. All this shows us that with the right political momentum and willingness to implement institutional reform, the enlargement process can move quickly and effectively.

Ukraine’s resilience

Ukraine’s application has followed a similar timeline to that of Moldova, with negotiations opening simultaneously. Its progress is even more impressive given the ongoing conflict in the country. Days after Russia’s military invasion in 2022, Ukraine applied to join the EU, being granted candidate status just months later, with official accession negotiations being opened in 2024. Its application is expected to follow a similar course to that of Moldova, with chapters to be officially opened soon. However, this process is not without its obstacles. The significant challenges are a result of not only political constraints within the EU but also because of the ongoing aggression from Russia, including economic difficulties, physical destruction, the temporary suppression of certain democratic freedoms due to martial law, and territorial issues. Despite that, Ukraine’s accession negotiations have continued to move forward. The significant support and political motivation from both sides and the continued reforms have kept the process moving quickly. It just shows how strongly countries are willing to join the European Union.

Montenegro’s path to accession

Finally, Montenegro, while not part of the Eastern Partnership, can serve as an example for eastern candidates, as its 20-year journey might soon come to an end. Montenegro applied for EU membership in 2008, was granted candidate status in 2010, and opened accession negotiations in 2012. Since then, it has opened all negotiation chapters and provisionally closed several, making it the most advanced candidate in the process. However, despite this early progress, Montenegro’s path has slowed in recent years due to major challenges in judicial reform, the rule of law, and political instability. According to assessments by the Commission, further reforms, particularly in strengthening institutions and tackling corruption, are required before the remaining chapters can be closed. Montenegro’s goal is to join the EU by 2028. The country’s progress illustrates the fact that EU admission is a long-term issue that requires constant effort in institutional reform.

Conclusion

The road to EU membership is long, and that’s for a good reason. The candidacy process ensures that necessary reforms are made so that a country’s institutions, laws, freedoms, and functions are compatible with EU values and can exist smoothly in the framework of European cooperation. While we often focus on the issues and difficulties, it’s important to take a step back to acknowledge the significant progress and learn from it. The examples of Moldova, Ukraine, and Montenegro highlight the fact that enlargement is not an easy game, but rather a complicated process. This is perhaps the most important lesson. Progress is neither uniform nor immediate, but it is measurable. This process requires active effort not just from governments, but society as a whole, from all of us, so that one day we may have a Europe of over 30 states, fully united, with cooperation, diversity, and respect.

Sources: 

European Council. (1993). Conclusions of the Copenhagen European Council.

European Commission. (n.d.). Chapters of the acquis. Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations. 

European Commission. (2024). Commission adopts 2024 Enlargement Package. Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations. 

Konstantinos Barmpopoulos (YED Student)