Total estimated cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine reaches over €500 billion

Four years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an updated joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) estimates that, as of 31 December 2025, the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine will be almost $588 billion over the next decade, which is nearly three times the estimated nominal GDP of Ukraine for 2025.

The assessment was released on 23 February by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations.

“Russia’s war of aggression has brought destruction unseen in generations,” said EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos. “This assessment shows the scale of the challenge and the opportunity before us. Our response is clear: we will rebuild Ukraine as a strong, modern EU country. Through bold reforms and the Ukraine Investment Framework as our tools to mobilise investments at scale, we will transform devastation into prosperity and advance Ukraine’s path to the EU.”

The latest update presents an overview of nearly four years of impact, covering 46 months between February 2022 and December 2025. It finds that direct damage in Ukraine has now reached over $195 billion (€166 billion), up from $176 billion (€150 billion) in the RDNA4 of February 2025, with housing, transport, and energy sectors being most affected. Damage, losses, and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas.

In the energy sector, which has been subject to increased attacks as Ukraine endures a winter of record intensity, there has been an approximately 21 per cent increase in damaged or destroyed assets since the last assessment, including power generation, transmission, distribution infrastructure, and district heating. In the transport sector, needs have increased by around 24 percent since RDNA4 and are the result of intensified attacks on rail and ports during 2025. As of 31 December, 2025, 14 per cent of housing has been damaged or destroyed, impacting over three million households.

According to RDNA5, at least $20 billion (almost €17 billion) in needs have already been met since February 2022 through urgent repairs and early recovery activities in housing, energy, education, transport, and other essential sectors.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said: “I thank the World Bank, EU, and UN teams for supporting our efforts to stand against the challenges. The assistance helps us urgently repair our critical infrastructure to keep the country running as well as continue systematic recovery activities focusing on energy projects and housing for our people.”

Of the total long-term needs, reconstruction and recovery needs are the highest in the transport sector (over $96 billion). This is followed by the energy sector (nearly $91 billion), housing (almost $90 billion), commerce and industry (over $63 billion), and agriculture (over $55 billion). The cost of explosives hazard management and debris clearance is almost $28 billion, despite some progress in surveying and demining that helped to contain losses in this sector.

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