EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects report June 2026

The Regional Economic Prospects report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) contains a summary of regional economic developments and outlook, alongside the EBRD’s growth forecasts for the economies where it invests.

According to the report, Economic performance in eastern Europe and the Caucasus remained uneven in 2025 and early 2026.

Under wartime conditions, Ukraine preserved macroeconomic stability, underpinned by substantial international financing, but growth was constrained by Russia’s attacks on energy infrastructure, labour shortages and inflation risks linked to the Middle East crisis.

The Moldovan economy has been expanding modestly, but now faces renewed inflationary and growth risks from energy shocks, though the impact will be partly mitigated by EU support. 

Armenia and Georgia continued to record strong growth, with construction, information and communications technology (ICT) and financial services expanding briskly in Armenia and the services sector booming in Georgia. Inflationary pressures have re-emerged in both economies, with price growth exceeding central bank targets. 

Azerbaijan’s economy has lost momentum in the past year, with declining hydrocarbon output pushing the economy into contraction in early 2026. 

In Ukraine and Moldova, the outlook is uncertain, tied to the duration of the war, external financing, energy security and reconstruction needs. In the Caucasus, the outlook depends primarily on regional security conditions, energy price developments, and progress on peace and regional connectivity.

The report is published twice a year. 

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