Eastern Enlargement of the EU has more advantages than disadvantages

Author: Nika Kratsashvili, YEA from Georgia

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, three Eastern Partner and Association Trio countries, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova applied for European Union membership. Subsequently, after reviewing their applications, in June 2022, the European Council recognised the European Perspective for Georgia, making it a potential candidate, and granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova. On December 14, 2023, taking into account the European Commission’s recommendation, the European Council granted candidate status to Georgia and agreed to start the accession negotiations with Kyiv and Chișinău.

Therefore, the prospects of the EU’s eastern enlargement covering the Association Trio countries have never been more realistic. Along with these developments, the advantages and disadvantages of Eastern enlargement are actively debated. Despite several associated risks, there are stronger arguments that the accession of the Association Trio countries will bring more advantages than disadvantages for the EU. The advantages can be grouped into three categories: political, economic, and strategic.

Starting with the counterarguments, opponents of Eastern enlargement usually refer to the risks of bringing these three countries into the Union. Among others, one frequently hears the opinion that their accession, bearing in mind Russia’s military actions in Ukraine and years-long occupation of parts of Georgian and Moldovan territories, may drag the EU into direct conflict with Russia. Opponents also pinpoint the democratic deficit in the Association Trio and the potential for a shift in the balance of power in European institutions after the enlargement.

However, accession does not happen overnight and before the process gets finalised, the Association Trio countries will continue their reform process and get closer to the Union standards. Meanwhile, there is a high probability that the war in Ukraine will be over before they join the EU, while  the scope of EU accession may temporarily not cover occupied territories, similarly to Article 429 (2) in the EU-Georgia Association Agreement of 2014.^[1] Finally, when it comes to the balance of power, while any enlargement naturally changes EU dynamics and interests, the fears seem to be overestimated. The population of the EU, currently around 450 million, would be increased by a maximum of 50 million people from Ukraine (around 37 milllion for now), Georgia (around 3.7 million) and Moldova (around 3.4 million) altogether. Even if this could be reflected in a relatively large number of Ukrainian MEPs in the European Parliament, none of the Association Trio countries can gain absolute dominance in decision-making, either in the Parliament or in other institutions, such as the European Commission where states usually have a single representative.

Coming back to the arguments in favour of the Eastern Enlargement, the first dimension one can refer to is political. According to 2023 polls, more than 80% of the citizens of Georgia and Ukraine, and more than 60% of Moldova’scitizens support their countries’ accession to the EU. Putting the Euro-enthusiast nations in a deadlock similar to what has happened in the Western Balkans, would not only affect these nations’ perceptions but would cause reputational damage to the EU. If the EU wants to emerge as an influential actor in the regional and the international arena, the inclusion of three extremely pro-European countries could be seen as a tool to maximise its power and increase integrity. This is especially relevant in the context of the emergence of Eurosceptic forces in the EU.

Secondly, when it comes to the economic domain, the Eastern enlargement may allow for further rapprochement. Despite the existing DCFTAs that the EU and the three countries signed in 2014, accession will fully unlock the economic potential that the EU could take advantage of. The motivation to deal with Ukrainian, Georgian and Moldovan markets will strengthen since they will also be covered by the safety, credibility, and stability associated with the EU. EU-based companies might be especially interested in the Ukrainian market considering its size. However, Georgian and Moldovan markets, demonstrating great potential, might also be appealing to the EU and global businesses; motably, Georgia ranks 7^th in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business.

Last but not least, the EU’s Eastern enlargement will result in the strategic advancement of the Union. The founding fathers and many subsequent generations perhaps could never have thought that countries such as Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, at the time Soviet republics similar to Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, would now be part of the EU, but time has proved otherwise. The EU has never had such an opportunity to upscale its influence over such extremely strategic locations. The accession of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova would take the EU borders to the Caucasus, the Middle East and Central Asia, all being interesting to the EU from both the security and economic perspectives. Furthermore, considering the ongoing talks over the need for the empowerment of the bloc’s security and defence policy, the Eastern enlargement can bring both territorial and human surplus, also keeping in mind the high combat experience of Ukrainian and Georgian soldiers, gained in ongoing and recent wars (2008, 2014, 2022-2023), as well as in NATO, US, and EU-led missions.

In conclusion, bringing the Association Trio countries on board would increase the EU’s international reputation and help it maintain its positive image in opposition to Eurosceptic parties. Apart from that, the accession of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova would strengthen economic links and open up new financial and investment opportunitiesfor European companies. Finally, the Eastern enlargement can be seen as a step forward for the EU’s quest for strategic autonomy and an opportunity to spread its influence over the wider European continent and beyond. Therefore, the political, economic and strategic advantages that the EU may gain with Eastern enlargement, highly outweigh potential risks. It is also a moral issue, not to leave behind the nations which demonstrate readiness to die for the European idea, especially keeping in mind that Russian aggression may once again cover not just Ukraine, but also Georgia and Moldova, highlighted by the ongoing creeping occupation in Georgia. This is a watershed moment for the EU to act proactively because if the Association Trio countries fail, the EU may need to face an overly aggressive and empowered Russia on its borders. As Robert Schuman, one of the EU pioneers, said: “World peace cannot be safeguarded without the making of creative efforts proportionate to the dangers which threaten it.”Therefore, apart from the potential advantages the EU can gain from Eastern enlargement, there is also the “creative effort” essential to the achievement of long-term peace in the region and the world.

Nika Kratsashvili has a BA in International Relations and MA in European Studies at Tbilisi State University, and is currently studying for a Master’s Degree in Policies and Governance in Europe at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome, Italy

^[1] EU- Georgia Association Agreement, Article 429 (2): “The application of this Agreement, or of Title IV (Trade and Trade-related Matters) thereof, in relation to Georgia’s regions of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia over which the Government of Georgia does not exercise effective control, shall commence once Georgia ensures the full implementation and enforcement of this Agreement, or of Title IV (Trade and Trade-related Matters) thereof, respectively, on its entire territory.”