{"id":299016,"date":"2024-04-12T07:53:07","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T07:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/euneighbourseast.eu\/?p=299016"},"modified":"2024-04-16T07:07:31","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T07:07:31","slug":"nu-timpul-nu-este-de-partea-rusiei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/euneighbourseast.eu\/ro\/news\/stories\/nu-timpul-nu-este-de-partea-rusiei\/","title":{"rendered":"Nu, timpul nu este de partea Rusiei"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Autorit\u0103\u021bile ruse sus\u021bin cu regularitate c\u0103 economia rus\u0103 nu ar avea cu adev\u0103rat de suferit de pe urma sanc\u021biunilor occidentale \u0219i c\u0103 timpul ar fi de partea Rusiei \u00een r\u0103zboiul de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei. \u00cens\u0103 aceste idei nu rezist\u0103 unei evalu\u0103ri minu\u021bioase. Sanc\u021biunile noastre au sl\u0103bit deja \u00een mod semnificativ economia rus\u0103, iar viitorul \u021b\u0103rii devine din ce \u00een ce mai sumbru pe zi ce trece, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce Rusia continu\u0103 r\u0103zboiul de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a9 ANYA MARCHENKOVA \/ AFP<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Confrunt\u00e2ndu-se cu r\u0103zboiul de agresiune al Rusiei \u00eempotriva Ucrainei, Uniunea European\u0103 a convenit p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent \u00een unanimitate asupra a 13 pachete de sanc\u021biuni – cel mai mare efort de sanc\u021bionare pe care l-a f\u0103cut vreodat\u0103. Aceste sanc\u021biuni au fost, de asemenea, coordonate \u00eendeaproape cu mul\u021bi parteneri care \u00eemp\u0103rt\u0103\u0219esc acelea\u0219i idei. Cu toate acestea, am auzit adesea \u00een ultimele luni c\u0103 aceste sanc\u021biuni f\u0103r\u0103 precedent ar putea s\u0103 nu func\u021bioneze. Aceste voci au fost deosebit de puternice dup\u0103 ce autorit\u0103\u021bile ruse au anun\u021bat o cre\u0219tere a PIB-ului de 3,6 % \u00een 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pruden\u021b\u0103 cu cifrele oficiale din Rusia lui Putin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, \u00eentr-o autocra\u021bie precum Rusia, unde nu exist\u0103 libertatea de informare \u0219i nici mecanisme de control, trebuie s\u0103 fim \u00eentotdeauna foarte precau\u021bi cu cifrele oficiale. Cele economice sunt la fel de suspecte ca \u0219i rezultatele votului de la ultimele alegeri preziden\u021biale. \u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, era pu\u021bin probabil \u00eenc\u0103 de la \u00eenceput ca economia rus\u0103 s\u0103 se pr\u0103bu\u0219easc\u0103 dup\u0103 invazia Ucrainei. \u00cen ultimii doi ani, am subliniat \u00een mod constant c\u0103 efectul sanc\u021biunilor noastre nu va fi imediat \u0219i c\u0103 scopul lor este de a sl\u0103bi capacitatea Rusiei de a-\u0219i sus\u021bine efortul de r\u0103zboi pe termen mediu. \u0218i asta este, de fapt, ceea ce \u00eencepe s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a9 FEDERAL TREASURY OF RUSSIA<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\u00a9 SOURCE: RUSSIA’S DRAFT BUDGET PLANS, REUTERS, OCT. 16 2023 BY SUMANTA SEN<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

„Cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 \u00eenregistrat\u0103 \u00een Rusia \u00een 2023 a fost rezultatul clasic al unei politici de „keynesianism de r\u0103zboi”, \u00eent\u00e2lnit\u0103 deja \u00een Germania \u00een anii 1930.”<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 \u00eenregistrat\u0103 \u00een Rusia \u00een 2023 a fost rezultatul clasic al unei politici de „keynesianism de r\u0103zboi”, care a fost deja \u00eent\u00e2lnit\u0103 \u00een Germania \u00een anii 1930. Cu o cre\u0219tere de 70 % a cheltuielilor pentru ap\u0103rare \u00een 2024 fa\u021b\u0103 de anul precedent, aproximativ 30 % din bugetul Rusiei \u0219i 6 % din PIB-ul s\u0103u sunt acum dedicate oficial ap\u0103r\u0103rii na\u021bionale, cu importante resurse suplimentare alocate drept cheltuieli clasificate. Cheltuielile militare \u0219i de securitate au revenit la nivelul din epoca sovietic\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economia rus\u0103, alimentat\u0103 de explozia cheltuielilor pentru ap\u0103rare<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economia rus\u0103 a fost alimentat\u0103 de aceast\u0103 explozie a cheltuielilor pentru ap\u0103rare, inclusiv de pl\u0103\u021bile ridicate c\u0103tre solda\u021bi \u0219i familiile celor uci\u0219i \u00een Ucraina, \u00een special \u00een r\u00e2ndul minorit\u0103\u021bilor etnice din regiunile mai s\u0103race. Aceast\u0103 dinamic\u0103 se reflect\u0103, de asemenea, \u00een dezechilibrele economice regionale, regiunile cu industrii militare puternice sau care se \u00eenvecineaz\u0103 cu Ucraina \u00eenregistr\u00e2nd performan\u021be economice mai bune, datorit\u0103 activit\u0103\u021bilor legate de r\u0103zboi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pentru un regim autoritar precum Rusia lui Putin, este relativ u\u0219or s\u0103 redirec\u021bioneze economia c\u0103tre produc\u021bia militar\u0103, de\u0219i cu consecin\u021be negative masive pentru alte sectoare. Trecerea la o economie de r\u0103zboi \u00eenseamn\u0103 \u00een mod necesar mult mai pu\u021bine cheltuieli pentru educa\u021bie, s\u0103n\u0103tate, securitate social\u0103, drumuri, infrastructur\u0103 civil\u0103, sisteme energetice… Aceast\u0103 reorientare a afectat deja negativ vie\u021bile multor cet\u0103\u021beni ru\u0219i obi\u0219nui\u021bi, a\u0219a cum am v\u0103zut, de exemplu, \u00een cazul numeroaselor defec\u021biuni ale sistemelor de \u00eenc\u0103lzire colectiv\u0103 din mai multe ora\u0219e ruse\u0219ti iarna trecut\u0103. Dac\u0103 r\u0103zboiul continu\u0103, situa\u021bia nu va face dec\u00e2t s\u0103 se \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u021beasc\u0103.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a9 CREA, 2024<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\u00a9 CSR, 2024<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

„Veniturile pe care economia rus\u0103 le ob\u021bine din exporturile de combustibili fosili s-au \u00eenjum\u0103t\u0103\u021bit din prim\u0103vara anului 2022.”<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

De asemenea, sanc\u021biunile noastre lovesc deja \u00een buzunarul Rusiei. Veniturile pe care economia rus\u0103 le ob\u021bine din exporturile de combustibili fosili s-au \u00eenjum\u0103t\u0103\u021bit din prim\u0103vara anului 2022, din cauza embargoului european asupra c\u0103rbunelui, petrolului \u0219i a plafon\u0103rii pre\u021bului decis\u0103 de G7 pentru exporturile de petrol. Obiectivul nostru nu a fost niciodat\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eempiedic\u0103m Rusia s\u0103 exporte combustibili fosili, ceea ce ar fi declan\u0219at o criz\u0103 major\u0103 pe pie\u021bele energetice mondiale. Obiectivul  a fost de a reduce semnificativ profiturile Rusiei din aceste exporturi \u0219i am atins acest obiectiv. Acest lucru este eviden\u021biat de cifrele comerciale: \u00een calitate de exportator major de combustibili fosili, Rusia a avut \u00een mod tradi\u021bional un excedent extern uria\u0219. Cu toate acestea, \u00een ultimii doi ani, acest excedent s-a mic\u0219orat p\u00e2n\u0103 aproape de zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a9 FEDERAL STATE STATISTICS SERVICE, 2024<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen Rusia, infla\u021bia este ridicat\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen 2022, economia rus\u0103 a \u00eenregistrat, de asemenea, o cre\u0219tere puternic\u0103 a infla\u021biei, \u00een mare parte din cauza sanc\u021biunilor occidentale. \u00cen prima jum\u0103tate a anului 2023, infla\u021bia a sc\u0103zut considerabil, pentru ca de la jum\u0103tatea anului 2023 s\u0103 creasc\u0103 din nou. \u00cen prezent, ratele anuale ale infla\u021biei \u00een Rusia dep\u0103\u0219esc 8%, \u00een compara\u021bie cu 2,6% \u00een zona euro. Acest lucru a fost valabil \u00een special pentru pre\u021burile la produsele alimentare, cu o cre\u0219tere de 40 %, de exemplu, a pre\u021bului ou\u0103lor \u00een 2023, un aliment de baz\u0103 pentru mul\u021bi ru\u0219i. Cheltuielile pentru mese, \u00een bugetul unei familii ruse\u0219ti medii, au crescut la mai mult de 30% din total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a9 GOOGLE, 2024<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Din prim\u0103vara anului 2022, rubla a sc\u0103zut, de asemenea, \u00een mod constant. Aceast\u0103 devalorizare face ca importurile s\u0103 fie mai scumpe. Pentru a stopa aceast\u0103 c\u0103dere a monedei ruse\u0219ti \u0219i reapari\u021bia infla\u021biei, Banca Central\u0103 Rus\u0103 a fost nevoit\u0103 s\u0103 majoreze brusc ratele dob\u00e2nzilor pe termen scurt, care se situeaz\u0103 acum la 16% pe an, adic\u0103 de 3,5 ori mai mult dec\u00e2t rata dob\u00e2nzii B\u0103ncii Centrale Europene. Cheltuielile masive legate de r\u0103zboi, costurile mai mari ale importurilor \u0219i o pia\u021b\u0103 a for\u021bei de munc\u0103 tensionat\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 infla\u021bia din Rusia va r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicat\u0103, oblig\u00e2nd Banca Central\u0103 s\u0103 men\u021bin\u0103 ratele dob\u00e2nzilor la niveluri ridicate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

„\u00cen condi\u021biile unor rate ale dob\u00e2nzilor foarte ridicate, investi\u021biile private din Rusia sunt grav afectate, iar statul rus \u00eensu\u0219i nu \u00ee\u0219i poate permite s\u0103 se \u00eemprumute. Lipsa consecutiv\u0103 a investi\u021biilor va afecta \u0219i mai mult viitorul economic al Rusiei.”<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, \u00eencrederea investitorilor \u00een viitorul economiei ruse\u0219ti este at\u00e2t de sc\u0103zut\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t guvernul rus trebuie s\u0103 se \u00eemprumute la o rat\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii pe 10 ani de aproape 14% pe an, fa\u021b\u0103 o medie de 2,9% \u00een zona euro. Rusia s-a confruntat deja cu fug\u0103 semnificativ\u0103 de capital, chiar \u0219i cei pe care Rusia \u00eei catalogheaz\u0103 drept \u021b\u0103ri „prietene” nu sunt dornici s\u0103 parieze pe viitorul Rusiei. Cu ratele dob\u00e2nzilor la un nivel at\u00e2t de ridicat, investi\u021biile private \u00een Rusia sunt grav afectate, iar statul rus \u00eensu\u0219i nu \u00ee\u0219i poate permite s\u0103 se \u00eemprumute. Lipsa consecutiv\u0103 a investi\u021biilor va afecta \u0219i mai mult viitorul economic al Rusiei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ac\u021biuni pentru a limita eludarea sanc\u021biunilor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este un fapt recunoscut c\u0103 sanc\u021biunile noastre sunt par\u021bial eludate, \u00een special prin exporturi de produse c\u0103tre vecinii Rusiei, care sunt apoi reexportate \u00een Rusia. Ca r\u0103spuns, \u00eempreun\u0103 cu partenerii no\u0219tri din G7, lucr\u0103m \u00een mod constant la limitarea acestui tip de eludare, cu scopul de a-i trage la r\u0103spundere pe to\u021bi actorii din lan\u021bul de aprovizionare, \u00een special b\u0103ncile care contribuie la astfel de tranzac\u021bii. Aceste eforturi devin din ce \u00een ce mai eficiente. Cu toate acestea, chiar \u0219i \u00een ciuda elud\u0103rii par\u021biale, a devenit mult mai dificil pentru Rusia s\u0103 ob\u021bin\u0103 produsele de care are nevoie pentru a continua r\u0103zboiul, \u00een special produsele de \u00eenalt\u0103 tehnologie. \u00cen prezent, Rusia reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 ob\u021bin\u0103 doar o frac\u021biune din ce ar avea nevoie \u0219i la pre\u021buri mult mai mari dec\u00e2t \u00eenainte de februarie 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

„\u00cen ciuda elud\u0103rii par\u021biale a sanc\u021biunilor noastre, Rusia reu\u0219e\u0219te acum s\u0103 ob\u021bin\u0103 doar o frac\u021biune din ce ar avea nevoie \u0219i la pre\u021buri mult mai mari dec\u00e2t \u00eenainte de februarie 2022.”<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Aceast\u0103 dificultate este deja reflectat\u0103 \u00een statisticile oficiale ruse\u0219ti. \u00cen conturile na\u021bionale ale Rusiei, cheltuielile de investi\u021bii au crescut cu peste 20% de la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei. Totu\u0219i, acesta nu este un semn c\u0103 economia rus\u0103 se modernizeaz\u0103 cu o vitez\u0103 ame\u021bitoare. Dimpotriv\u0103, volumul investi\u021biilor efective a sc\u0103zut probabil \u00een mod semnificativ. Acest salt al cheltuielilor de investi\u021bii reflect\u0103 \u00een principal cre\u0219terea brusc\u0103 a pre\u021bului bunurilor de capital pe care Rusia reu\u0219e\u0219te \u00eenc\u0103 s\u0103 le importe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a9 JONATHAN MCDOWELL, PLANET4589.ORG<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen ciuda capacit\u0103\u021bii regimului autoritar rus de a redirec\u021biona masiv produc\u021bia economiei \u021b\u0103rii c\u0103tre produc\u021bia de arme \u0219i muni\u021bii, dependen\u021ba sa de \u021b\u0103ri precum Iran sau Coreea de Nord pentru a furniza suficiente drone, muni\u021bii sau rachete pentru a-\u0219i sus\u021bine efortul de r\u0103zboi reflect\u0103, de asemenea, o sl\u0103biciune industrial\u0103 persistent\u0103, agravat\u0103 de sanc\u021biunile occidentale. Produc\u021bia de automobile \u00een Rusia a sc\u0103zut la jum\u0103tate din ceea ce era \u00eenainte de r\u0103zboi. Industria spa\u021bial\u0103, care a fost c\u00e2ndva m\u00e2ndria \u021b\u0103rii, este \u00een mare dificultate. Transportul aerian a devenit destul de periculos din cauza lipsei de \u00eentre\u021binere, a actualiz\u0103rilor de software \u0219i a pieselor de schimb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O criz\u0103 major\u0103 a pie\u021bei muncii \u00een Rusia  <\/strong>  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mai mult dec\u00e2t at\u00e2t, \u00eentr-o \u021bar\u0103 care \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u0219te rapid, \u00een care popula\u021bia este \u00een sc\u0103dere \u00eenc\u0103 din anul 2000, exodul a sute de mii de tineri califica\u021bi dup\u0103 februarie 2022, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 sutele de mii de persoane mobilizate, moarte sau cu handicap pe via\u021b\u0103 din cauza r\u0103zboiului din Rusia, a deschis o criz\u0103 profund\u0103 pe pia\u021ba muncii din Rusia. \u00cen \u00eencercarea de a atenua aceast\u0103 criz\u0103, guvernul rus a deschis por\u021bile imigra\u021biei din Asia Central\u0103. Cu toate acestea, dup\u0103 tragicul atac terorist \u00een incinta s\u0103lii de concert Crocus City Hal, pentru care Daesh a revendicat responsabilitatea, mul\u021bi dintre ace\u0219ti migran\u021bi sunt trimi\u0219i \u00eenapoi acas\u0103, agrav\u00e2nd astfel criza for\u021bei de munc\u0103 din Rusia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Din cauza r\u0103zboiului \u00eempotriva Ucrainei, economia rus\u0103 se concentreaz\u0103 mai mult ca niciodat\u0103 pe comer\u021bul cu produse de baz\u0103, adesea la pre\u021b redus, pentru bunuri de tehnologie medie \u0219i \u00eenalt\u0103 tehnologie. China se folose\u0219te de aceast\u0103 situa\u021bie de sl\u0103biciune pentru a cump\u0103ra petrol ieftin din Rusia \u0219i pentru a exporta mai multe bunuri \u00een Rusia, care devine din ce \u00een ce mai dependent\u0103 de marele s\u0103u vecin. \u00cen prezent, aproximativ 50% din importurile Rusiei provin din China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economia Rusiei este considerabil sl\u0103bit\u0103 de sanc\u021biunile noastre<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pe scurt, credin\u021ba c\u0103 economia rus\u0103 ar fi rezistent\u0103 la sanc\u021biunile occidentale \u0219i c\u0103 timpul favorizeaz\u0103 Rusia \u00een r\u0103zboiul s\u0103u de agresiune nu rezist\u0103 la control. Dac\u0103 facem ceea ce este necesar pentru a continua s\u0103 sprijinim Ucraina din punct de vedere economic \u0219i militar, \u00een special \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te muni\u021bia, aceasta poate \u00eenvinge. Rusia, \u00een ciuda faptului c\u0103 este de trei ori mai populat\u0103, este \u00een realitate deja considerabil sl\u0103bit\u0103 de sanc\u021biunile noastre. \u00cen timp, efectul acestora se va resim\u021bi din ce \u00een ce mai mult, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce capitalul uman se erodeaz\u0103, volumul \u0219i calitatea investi\u021biilor se deterioreaz\u0103, iar Rusia este privat\u0103 de tehnologiile avansate necesare pentru a-\u0219i sus\u021bine viitorul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blogul HR\/VP – Josep Borrell, \u00cenaltul Reprezentant al Uniunii Europene pentru afaceri externe \u0219i politica de securitate \/ Vicepre\u0219edinte al Comisiei Europene<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autorit\u0103\u021bile ruse sus\u021bin cu regularitate c\u0103 economia rus\u0103 nu ar avea cu adev\u0103rat de suferit de pe urma sanc\u021biunilor occidentale \u0219i c\u0103 timpul ar fi de partea Rusiei \u00een r\u0103zboiul de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei. \u00cens\u0103 aceste idei nu rezist\u0103 unei evalu\u0103ri minu\u021bioase. Sanc\u021biunile noastre au sl\u0103bit deja \u00een mod semnificativ economia rus\u0103, iar viitorul \u021b\u0103rii devine din ce \u00een ce mai sumbru pe zi ce trece, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce Rusia continu\u0103 r\u0103zboiul de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei. Confrunt\u00e2ndu-se cu r\u0103zboiul de agresiune al Rusiei \u00eempotriva Ucrainei, Uniunea European\u0103 a convenit p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent \u00een unanimitate asupra a 13 pachete de sanc\u021biuni<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":298696,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","pgc_sgb_lightbox_settings":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[430],"tags":[],"post_flags":[1866],"countries":[1074,1075,1076,1077,1078,1079],"eunlocking_industries":[],"locations":[],"opportunity_categories":[],"publication_types":[],"topics":[807,820,822],"yea_countries":[],"yea_event_places":[],"activity_types":[],"class_list":["post-299016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stories","post_flag-not-featured-ro","country-armenia","country-azerbaijan","country-belarus","country-georgia","country-moldova","country-ukraine","topic-eastern-partnership","topic-political-relations","topic-security"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNu, timpul nu este de partea Rusiei - EU NEIGHBOURS east<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/euneighbourseast.eu\/ro\/news\/stories\/nu-timpul-nu-este-de-partea-rusiei\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nu, timpul nu este de partea Rusiei - EU NEIGHBOURS east\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Autorit\u0103\u021bile ruse sus\u021bin cu regularitate c\u0103 economia rus\u0103 nu ar avea cu adev\u0103rat de suferit de pe urma sanc\u021biunilor occidentale \u0219i c\u0103 timpul ar fi de partea Rusiei \u00een r\u0103zboiul de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei. \u00cens\u0103 aceste idei nu rezist\u0103 unei evalu\u0103ri minu\u021bioase. Sanc\u021biunile noastre au sl\u0103bit deja \u00een mod semnificativ economia rus\u0103, iar viitorul \u021b\u0103rii devine din ce \u00een ce mai sumbru pe zi ce trece, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce Rusia continu\u0103 r\u0103zboiul de agresiune \u00eempotriva Ucrainei. 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