{"id":171830,"date":"2022-04-01T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-01T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/euneighbourseast.eu\/?p=171830"},"modified":"2022-04-01T06:20:51","modified_gmt":"2022-04-01T06:20:51","slug":"berd-razboiul-din-ucraina-va-provoca-o-incetinire-majora-a-cresterii-economice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/euneighbourseast.eu\/ro\/news\/latest-news\/berd-razboiul-din-ucraina-va-provoca-o-incetinire-majora-a-cresterii-economice\/","title":{"rendered":"BERD: r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina va provoca o \u00eencetinire major\u0103 a cre\u0219terii economice"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

R\u0103zboiul din Ucraina va avea un efect grav asupra economiilor mult dincolo de zona imediat\u0103 a conflictului, potrivit unui nou studiu al B\u0103ncii Europene pentru Reconstruc\u021bie \u0219i Dezvoltare (BERD) de la \u00eenceputul agresiunii militare ruse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pentru regiunile \u00een care opereaz\u0103 BERD \u0219i-a redus cu mai mult de jum\u0103tate previziunile de cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 pentru 2022 – la 1,7%, \u00een sc\u0103dere cu 2,5% fa\u021b\u0103 de previziunile sale anterioare. Acesta preconizeaz\u0103 o cre\u0219tere mai robust\u0103 \u00een toate regiunile sale, de 5% \u00een 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Descriind efectele r\u0103zboiului drept „cel mai mare \u0219oc al ofertei cel pu\u021bin de la \u00eenceputul anilor 1970″<\/em>, Banca prevede c\u0103 majorarea costurilor pentru bunuri de baz\u0103 precum alimentele, petrolul, gazele \u0219i metalele va avea un impact profund asupra economiilor, \u00een special asupra celor din \u021b\u0103rile cu venituri mici. BERD reaminte\u0219te c\u0103 Rusia \u0219i Ucraina furnizeaz\u0103 o propor\u021bie dispropor\u021bionat de mare de bunuri, inclusiv gr\u00e2u, porumb, \u00eengr\u0103\u0219\u0103minte, titan \u0219i nichel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De\u0219i persist\u0103 un grad ridicat de incertitudine, este clar c\u0103 multe economii vor fi grav afectate \u0219i c\u0103 unele vor suferi mai mult dec\u00e2t altele. De exemplu, BERD preconizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 PIB-ul Ucrainei va sc\u0103dea cu 20% \u00een acest an, \u00een loc s\u0103 creasc\u0103 cu 3,5%. PIB-ul Rusiei va sc\u0103dea cu 10 % \u00een loc s\u0103 creasc\u0103 cu 3 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BERD preconizeaz\u0103, de asemenea, presiuni asupra monedelor din Caucaz \u0219i Asia Central\u0103, deoarece pie\u021bele supraestimeaz\u0103 riscurile geopolitice \u0219i afecteaz\u0103 turismul \u00een multe \u021b\u0103ri, inclusiv \u00een Armenia \u0219i Georgia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raportul examineaz\u0103, de asemenea, consecin\u021bele poten\u021biale ale celei mai mari deplas\u0103ri for\u021bate de persoane de dup\u0103 cel de-al Doilea R\u0103zboi Mondial \u00een Europa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potrivit BERD, lucr\u0103torii califica\u021bi din Ucraina ar putea da un impuls unor economii pe termen lung, \u00een special \u00een \u021b\u0103rile cu popula\u021bie \u00een curs de \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nire. Pe termen scurt, economiile se confrunt\u0103 cu presiuni fiscale \u0219i provoc\u0103ri administrative pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce sporesc furnizarea de locuin\u021be, asisten\u021b\u0103 medical\u0103 \u0219i \u0219colarizare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previziunile BERD presupun c\u0103 se va ajunge la o \u00eencetare a focului \u00een c\u00e2teva luni, urmat\u0103 la scurt timp de \u00eenceperea unui efort major de reconstruc\u021bie \u00een Ucraina, ceea ce va aduce PIB-ul p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2023 aproape de nivelurile de dinaintea r\u0103zboiului, dar \u00eenc\u0103 sub acestea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se preconizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 sanc\u021biunile impuse Rusiei vor continua \u00een viitorul apropiat, condamn\u00e2nd economia rus\u0103 la stagnare \u00een 2023 (dup\u0103 o sc\u0103dere brusc\u0103 a PIB-ului \u00een 2022), cu urm\u0103ri negative pentru un \u0219ir de \u021b\u0103ri vecine din Europa de Est, Caucaz \u0219i Asia Central\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deoarece nivelul de incertitudine r\u0103m\u00e2ne a fi \u00eenalt, Banca inten\u021bioneaz\u0103 s\u0103 elaboreze o nou\u0103 prognoz\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103toarele dou\u0103 luni, \u021bin\u00e2nd cont de evolu\u021biile ulterioare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Afl\u0103 mai multe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comunicat de pres\u0103<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BERD \u00ee\u0219i va \u00eenchide birourile din Moscova \u0219i Minsk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BERD prezint\u0103 un pachet de rezilien\u021b\u0103 de 2 miliarde de euro ca r\u0103spuns la r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

R\u0103zboiul din Ucraina va avea un efect grav asupra economiilor mult dincolo de zona imediat\u0103 a conflictului, potrivit unui nou studiu al B\u0103ncii Europene pentru Reconstruc\u021bie \u0219i Dezvoltare (BERD) de la \u00eenceputul agresiunii militare ruse. Pentru regiunile \u00een care opereaz\u0103 BERD \u0219i-a redus cu mai mult de jum\u0103tate previziunile de cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 pentru 2022 – la 1,7%, \u00een sc\u0103dere cu 2,5% fa\u021b\u0103 de previziunile sale anterioare. Acesta preconizeaz\u0103 o cre\u0219tere mai robust\u0103 \u00een toate regiunile sale, de 5% \u00een 2023. Descriind efectele r\u0103zboiului drept „cel mai mare \u0219oc al ofertei cel pu\u021bin de la \u00eenceputul anilor 1970″, Banca prevede c\u0103<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":171681,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","pgc_sgb_lightbox_settings":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[427],"tags":[2088],"post_flags":[1883,1866],"countries":[1074,1075,1077,1078,1079],"eunlocking_industries":[],"locations":[],"opportunity_categories":[],"publication_types":[],"topics":[799,820,822],"yea_countries":[],"yea_event_places":[],"activity_types":[],"class_list":["post-171830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","tag-standwithukraine-8","post_flag-is-featured","post_flag-not-featured-ro","country-armenia","country-azerbaijan","country-georgia","country-moldova","country-ukraine","topic-business","topic-political-relations","topic-security"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBERD: r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina va provoca o \u00eencetinire major\u0103 a cre\u0219terii economice - EU NEIGHBOURS east<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/euneighbourseast.eu\/ro\/news\/latest-news\/berd-razboiul-din-ucraina-va-provoca-o-incetinire-majora-a-cresterii-economice\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"BERD: r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina va provoca o \u00eencetinire major\u0103 a cre\u0219terii economice - EU NEIGHBOURS east\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"R\u0103zboiul din Ucraina va avea un efect grav asupra economiilor mult dincolo de zona imediat\u0103 a conflictului, potrivit unui nou studiu al B\u0103ncii Europene pentru Reconstruc\u021bie \u0219i Dezvoltare (BERD) de la \u00eenceputul agresiunii militare ruse. 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