New EBRD forecast sees Ukraine’s recovery gaining traction

New EBRD forecast sees Ukraine’s recovery gaining traction

November 4, 2021

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 3.5% year-on-year in both 2021 and 2022.

According to the latest Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report, published today, growth in 2021 will be fuelled by a rich grain harvest and the continued normalisation of business activities. At the same time, slow progress on reform and rollout of the Covid-19 vaccination remain major risks to the forecast.

Due to the prolonged lockdown in early 2021, Ukraine’s economy declined by 2.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, before embarking on a recovery of 5.7% in the second quarter. The EBRD report says that driven by double-digit growth in household consumption and investment, the recovery was underpinned by strongly rising prices for major export products such as cereals and iron.

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